Long-range forecast: October scorcher! Britons to bask in 21C as Mediterranean plume hits

BBC Weather: Murky start before temperatures rise across UK

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The UK has enjoyed long spells of dry and sunny weather this September and the balmy conditions are set to continue into the autumn. Hot weather is poised to grip the UK during the first week of October with temperatures surging into the 20Cs.

The first weekend of October is set to see the mercury reach 20C (68f) on Saturday, October 2.

Maximum temperature charts show parts of central and southern England turning a shade of orange as the warm air moves across the country.

According to the Netweather charts, Britain appears to be drawing in plumes of hot air from southern France as temperatures rocket into the mid-twenties across on the Channel.

On Sunday, October 3, the mercury will remain slightly above average with the high-teens expected across central and south eastern parts.

The far south of England is set for 19C by 6pm, with 17C in the Midlands and 16C in Wales.

Thermometers are poised to exceed 20C on Monday, October 4 as an area of high pressure continues to build around the British Isles.

The latest Netweather maps shows areas of the far south east of England baking in 21C heat by 3pm.

Warmer air is expected to push further northwards as temperature dials surge to 18C in central regions and 17C in the North East.

The Netweather long-range forecast from October 4 says: “It will probably be drier than average for a large majority of the UK, especially early in the week, when high pressure looks set to be quite dominant for much of the time.

“There is fairly high confidence that rainfall will be below average overall.

“Temperatures are expected to be close to the long-term normal overall, with potential for one or two northerly outbreaks to bring some cool nights, but warmer westerlies in between.

“Sunshine totals will probably be above normal overall for most of the country, particularly the west, although at this time of year, cloudy anticyclones are more common than in the summer, so confidence in sunshine totals is lower than for rainfall totals.”


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The BBC long-range forecast says there are “encouraging signals” that the warm weather experienced this month will continue.

It forecasts the period of warm weather is being driven by an area of high pressure from Europe.

Towards the middle of October, it also warns the period of sunny and dry weather could be at risk due to the threat of storms brewing in the Atlantic.

The BBC forecast from October 4-17 said: “Throughout the first half of October, we continue to see some encouraging signals that the large-scale pattern from late September will continue without a significant change.

“High pressure is likely to be a consistent feature in West Russia, which will be the main driving force for our weather.”

It adds: “Our risk scenario for the first half of October is that high pressure builds strong into West and Northwest Europe, pushing low pressure toward Iceland or Norway.

“This is a drier, warmer, and sunnier outlook and becomes a bit more likely if we see a strong Atlantic hurricane get too far north.

“There is a roughly 30 percent chance of this pattern developing instead, with the chances growing slightly toward mid-October.”
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